Estimation Technique Alternatives: How to Choose the Right One

When it comes to project planning and management, accurate estimation is essential for successful execution. Estimation techniques provide a framework for predicting the effort, resources, and time required to complete a project. However, there are various estimation techniques available, and choosing the right one can significantly impact project outcomes. In this article, we will explore different estimation technique alternatives and provide guidance on selecting the most suitable one for your project.

The Right Tool for the Job

Each project has six obligations:

1. Scope; the amount of work required for the project as a whole
2. Time; the amount of time required for each task as well as the project
3. The cost for each task and the entire project
4. Quality; the standards that are set for each task as well as the project
5. Resources; amount and type of resources necessary
6. and Risk; the areas that can impact the calculated budgets, schedule, quality, and/or end result/product.

The following techniques are used to assist the project manager in producing accurate estimates to create a sound project plan. There are several different techniques and no universal way to estimate.

In fact, within a project, several estimation techniques may be used, depending on the initial data available and  intended outcome for each individual task. Even changes that occur that affect the scope of the project may cause you to rethink the estimation and go with another technique.

Since Project Management covers so many fields and industries, it may be difficult to determine which knowledge areas and process groups apply to your particular field. However, project estimation is a necessity for time management in all areas of project management, Engineering, IT, Construction, Manufacturing, etc.

Why Choosing the Right Estimation Technique Matters

Accurate estimation is crucial for several reasons:

• Effective resource allocation
• Realistic project planning
• Accurate budgeting
• Identification of potential risks and constraints
• Improved decision-making

Common Estimation Techniques

1. Expert Judgment: This technique relies on the knowledge and expertise of experienced individuals or subject matter experts. It involves seeking input from knowledgeable professionals who can provide reliable estimates based on their past experiences and domain expertise.

2. Analogous Estimating: This technique uses historical data from similar past projects as a reference point for estimating the current project. It is useful when there is limited information available for the current project, and there are similarities with previous projects.

3. Parametric Estimating: This technique involves using statistical relationships between project variables to estimate project effort and duration. It utilizes mathematical models and algorithms to calculate estimates based on specific project parameters.

4. Three-Point Estimating: This technique incorporates three estimates: the most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely. By considering best-case, worst-case, and most probable scenarios, this technique provides a more comprehensive and probabilistic estimate.

5. Bottom-Up Estimating: This technique involves breaking down the project into smaller components or work packages and estimating each component individually. The estimates are then aggregated to determine the overall project estimate.

Choosing the Right Estimation Technique

When selecting an estimation technique for your project, consider the following factors:

• Project characteristics
• Availability of data
• Project complexity
• Time and resources available for estimation
• Level of detail required

Advantages and Disadvantages of Estimation Techniques

Each estimation technique has its own strengths and limitations:

• Expert Judgment:
  • Advantages: Draws on expertise, quick and cost-effective.
  • Disadvantages: Subjective, dependent on individual judgment.
• Analogous Estimating:
  • Advantages: Quick, easy to implement, requires minimal data.
  • Disadvantages: Assumes similarity with previous projects, limited accuracy.
• Parametric Estimating:
  • Advantages: Data-driven, suitable for repetitive tasks.
  • Disadvantages: Requires historical data, may not account for project-specific factors.
• Three-Point Estimating:
  • Advantages: Probabilistic, accounts for uncertainty.
  • Disadvantages: Time-consuming, requires expertise in probability theory.
• Bottom-Up Estimating:
  • Advantages: Detailed, accurate for well-defined work packages.
  • Disadvantages: Time-consuming, difficult for complex projects.

Conclusion

Choosing the right estimation technique is essential for effective project planning and management. Consider the project’s characteristics, available data, complexity, and level of detail required to make an informed decision. Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of different estimation techniques will help you select the most suitable approach for your project. By using the right estimation technique, you can improve project outcomes, avoid costly surprises, and ensure successful project delivery.

Understanding the information in this article is an essential part of project management and a vital part of the PMP exam. Improve your project management skills or prepare for the PMP Certification exam by taking a quality online PMP exam prep course.

Have you led projects and are looking to earn a project management certification?  You might be interested in learning about how lucrative this can be.  Check out these articles.

Should You Become PMP Certified? – Here’s Why Becoming A Certified Project Management Professional Can Boost Your Career

13 PMP Benefits Once You Get The PMP Certification

No experience leading projects but still want to get into project management?  No problem!  Check out these articles.  

CAPM Certification Eligibility

What is a Certified Project Manager; How do I get PM Certifications