Project Estimation: 9 Points to Set the Schedule

Project estimation is one of the most crucial aspects of project management. It involves estimating the time, cost, scope, risk, resources and quality of a project based on various factors and techniques. Project estimation helps project managers and stakeholders to plan, budget, monitor and control the project effectively.

However, project estimation is not an easy task. It requires a lot of experience, knowledge and skills to produce accurate and realistic estimates. Moreover, project estimation is often affected by uncertainty, complexity and changes that may occur during the project life cycle.

Therefore, project managers need to use various project estimation techniques to cope with these challenges and deliver successful projects. In this article, we will discuss some of the most popular and widely used project estimation techniques in 2024. We will also provide some tips and best practices on how to apply them in your projects.

What are Project Estimation Techniques?

Project estimation techniques are methods or tools that help project managers to calculate or predict the time, cost, scope, risk, resources and quality of a project based on available information and assumptions. Project estimation techniques can be classified into two main categories: top-down and bottom-up.

Top-down estimation techniques start with a high-level overview of the project and break it down into smaller components or phases. They are usually used at the early stages of a project when there is not much detail or clarity about the project requirements or specifications. Top-down estimation techniques are also useful for strategic planning, feasibility analysis and portfolio management.

Bottom-up estimation techniques start with the lowest level of detail or granularity of the project and aggregate them to form a complete picture of the project. They are usually used at the later stages of a project when there is more information and certainty about the project scope and deliverables. Bottom-up estimation techniques are also useful for detailed planning, scheduling and resource allocation.

Top 5 Project Estimation Techniques in 2024

There are many project estimation techniques available for project managers to choose from depending on the nature, size, complexity and stage of their projects. However, some of them are more popular and widely used than others. Here are the top 5 project estimation techniques that we think will be most relevant and useful for project managers in 2024:

1. Analogous Estimation

Analogous estimation is a top-down estimation technique that uses historical data from similar past projects to estimate the current project. It is based on the assumption that if two projects are similar in scope, size, complexity and other factors, they will have similar time, cost, resources and quality outcomes.

Analogous estimation is one of the simplest and fastest estimation techniques that can be used when there is limited information or time available for the current project. It is also useful for estimating projects that have high uncertainty or variability. However, analogous estimation has some limitations as well.

It depends on the availability and accuracy of historical data from past projects. It also requires expert judgment and adjustment to account for differences between past and current projects.

To use analogous estimation effectively, project managers should follow these steps:

• Identify one or more similar past projects that have reliable and relevant historical data.
• Compare the current project with the past projects in terms of scope, size, complexity, duration, cost, resources and quality.
• Adjust the estimates from the past projects based on the differences or similarities between them and the current project.
• Use expert judgment and experience to validate and refine the estimates.

2. Parametric Estimation

Parametric estimation is a top-down estimation technique that uses mathematical models or formulas to estimate the current project based on statistical relationships between variables or parameters. It is based on the assumption that there is a predictable correlation between certain variables or parameters of a project such as scope, size, complexity, duration, cost, resources and quality.

Parametric estimation is one of the most accurate and reliable estimation techniques that can be used when there is sufficient data available for the current project. It is also useful for estimating large-scale or complex projects that have many variables or parameters involved.

However, parametric estimation has some limitations as well. It depends on the availability and validity of data from current or past projects. It also requires expert knowledge and skills to develop and apply the mathematical models or formulas.

To use parametric estimation effectively, project managers should follow these steps:

• Identify the variables or parameters that are relevant and measurable for the current project.
• Collect data from current or past projects that have similar variables or parameters.
• Develop or use existing mathematical models or formulas that relate the variables or parameters to the project outcomes.
• Apply the mathematical models or formulas to the data to calculate the estimates.
• Use expert judgment and analysis to validate and refine the estimates.

3. Three-Point Estimation

Three-point estimation is a bottom-up estimation technique that uses three different estimates for each project component or activity based on different scenarios or assumptions. The three estimates are: optimistic, most likely and pessimistic. They represent the best-case, average-case and worst-case scenarios respectively.

Three-point estimation is one of the most comprehensive and realistic estimation techniques that can be used when there is high uncertainty or risk involved in the current project. It is also useful for estimating projects that have complex or interdependent components or activities.

However, three-point estimation has some limitations as well. It requires a lot of time and effort to collect and analyze data for each project component or activity. It also requires expert judgment and adjustment to account for dependencies and correlations between project components or activities.

To use three-point estimation effectively, project managers should follow these steps:

• Identify the project components or activities that need to be estimated.
• Collect data from current or past projects that have similar components or activities.
• Estimate the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values for each component or activity based on different scenarios or assumptions.
• Use a formula such as PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) or CPM (Critical Path Method) to calculate the weighted average estimate for each component or activity.
• Use expert judgment and analysis to validate and refine the estimates.

4. Agile Estimation

Agile estimation is a bottom-up estimation technique that uses relative units of measurement such as story points, function points, t-shirt sizes, etc. to estimate the current project based on user stories, features, requirements, etc. It is based on the assumption that it is easier and more accurate to compare and estimate relative sizes than absolute sizes of project components or activities.

Agile estimation is one of the most flexible and adaptive estimation techniques that can be used when there is frequent change or feedback involved in the current project. It is also useful for estimating projects that have iterative or incremental delivery methods such as Scrum, Kanban, etc.

However, agile estimation has some limitations as well. It depends on the availability and clarity of user stories, features, requirements, etc. It also requires expert judgment and collaboration to assign and agree on the relative units of measurement.

To use agile estimation effectively, project managers should follow these steps:

• Identify the user stories, features, requirements, etc. that need to be estimated.
• Select a relative unit of measurement such as story points, function points, t-shirt sizes, etc. that suits the project context and scope.
• Assign a value to each user story, feature, requirement, etc. based on its relative size, complexity, uncertainty and effort compared to others.
• Use a technique such as planning poker, affinity mapping, bucket system, etc. to facilitate collaboration and consensus among team members and stakeholders on the estimates.

5. Analytical Estimation

Analytical estimation is a bottom-up estimation technique that uses algorithms or tools to estimate the current project based on logical analysis of data and information. It is based on the assumption that there is a systematic and rational way to estimate the project outcomes based on available data and information.

Analytical estimation is one of the most advanced and sophisticated estimation techniques that can be used when there is complex data and information available for the current project. It is also useful for estimating projects that have artificial intelligence, machine learning, data science, etc. involved.

However, analytical estimation has some limitations as well. It depends on the availability and quality of data and information from current or past projects. It also requires expert knowledge and skills to develop and use the algorithms or tools.

To use analytical estimation effectively, project managers should follow these steps:

• Identify the data and information that are relevant and available for the current project.
• Develop or use existing algorithms or tools

Understanding the information in this article is an essential part of project management and a vital part of the PMP exam. Improve your project management skills or prepare for the PMP Certification exam by taking a quality online PMP exam prep course.

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